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| File Photo/Kirani James |
MONTE
CARLO, December 29, 2011 – Statisticians Lennart Julin of Sweden and Mirko
Jalava of Finland conclude their 2011 annual review with a look back at this
past season’s action in the Sprints (400m).
400m
This is an event that “always” has been a
definite US property. Both statistically and in the championships it has been
something of a rather evenly matched dual between the US and “all the rest of
the world”. In an average modern year list the US has occupied half of the
top-10 positions including the coveted No. 1 position and in the global
championships they often have taken two of the three places on the podium.
But recently this balance seems to have started
to swing in favour of “the rest of the world”. In the last two World
championship years (2009 and 2011) the US only had two names in the top-10. The
“world is catching up” feeling was especially strong in Daegu where the US
entered four runners (reigning World champion LaShawn Merritt plus three) but
only Merritt managed to reach the final!
Which if one goes a little deeper in the analysis
wasn’t really that surprising. Because it turns out that the US “production
line” of new 400m stars appears to have slowed down considerably in recent
years. At first this didn’t show as they had people like Jeremy Wariner and
LaShawn Merritt still dominating at the very top. But with Wariner more and
more troubled by niggling injuries they were very lucky to have Merritt back
from suspension at the very last moment – otherwise there would not have been
any US runner at all in the Daegu final!
But of course the new situation in the 400m is
not only due to US regress but also to “the rest of the world” raising their
game. This has happened in two areas especially, the Caribbean and Europe,
while Africa is still very much a “sleeping giant” in this event just like in
the 100m. The talent pool is there – as proven by former stars like Innocent
Egbunike (Nigeria), Gabriel Tiacoh (Ivory Coast), Gary Kikaya (Congo), Samson
Kitur (Kenya) and Davis Kamoga (Uganda) – but in Daegu they had no finalist and
only two (out of 24) in the semifinals.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the
Central America area which provided no less than 50 % (i.e. 12 of 24) of the
Daegu semifinalists: Three from Bahamas, two each from Grenada and Jamaica and one each from Trinidad, Cuba, Dominica,
Virgin Islands and Costa Rica! The most amazing story of all is that of Grenada who with a population of less
than 100,000 brought two runners all the way into the final.
And not only that: Grenada struck gold as Kirani James – two days before turning
19 – after a strong finish drive managed to pass reigning champion Merritt just
in time before the finish line: 44.60 vs 44.63. James confirmed his world No. 1 position a week later at the
Samsung Diamond League finals when he defeated Merritt once again and more
clearly: 44.36 vs 44.67.
James has been regarded
by many as the future of the event – even been called a Bolt of the 400m – ever
since taking the World Youth silver with 46.96 in 2007 not yet turned 15. That
contention grew stronger as he every year added another global medal: World
Junior silver 2008, World Youth gold 2009 and World Junior gold 2010. Now he
has the World senior gold also and is thus only missing the Olympic gold to
have a complete collection. But to also achieve that James will need to improve further into the very low 44s or even
high 43s.
2011 was a fairly weak year statistically with
Merritt’s 44.35 from the Daegu heats (!!) being the slowest World leader since
2002 (and the second slowest since 1985). Olympic years always mean a
noticeable raise in standards, especially in the US. And remember that Wariner
and Merritt are still only 28 and 26 respectively next year! As for candidates
to support/supplant those two in an immediate revival of the great US tradition
in this event no one is standing out at the moment. Tony McQuay, the US
champion in 2011 e.g. has yet to prove himself on the world stage after being
eliminated in the heats in his international debut in Daegu.
As for Europe the record levels of 2010 (six at
44.71 to 45.01) were not matched at all this year (only two sub-45.25). But
those two – the Borlée twins Jonathan and Kevin – competed successfully on the
global stage. In the Samsung Diamond League Jonathan was second and sixth in
Paris and Stockholm respectively while Kevin was third, sixth and fifth in
Eugene, New York and London. In Daegu Kevin got the bronze, two places and 0.17
seconds ahead of Jonathan. The question that remains to be answered is whether
they are capable of also the further improvement into the low 44’s which almost
certainly will be necessary to become part of the medal fight in the London
Olympics.
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